The meteorologist reported whether it will be possible to calculate the probability of tornado formation in the future.

      The probability of a tornado forming can be determined by the prognostic parameters of the atmosphere; however, it is only possible to know for sure about its occurrence after it has actually appeared. This was reported by Yekaterinburg meteorologist Alexey Pulin to RIA Novosti.

      According to him, specialists analyze data from meteorological models that allow them to assess whether there are favorable conditions for the development of this dangerous phenomenon. This way, the territory where the development of storm supercells with subsequent tornado formation is most likely is determined.

      After that, meteorologists monitor the situation's development using Doppler radars and satellite images, which are updated several times an hour. Pulin noted that several factors are necessary for tornado formation. In addition to high atmospheric instability and sufficient moisture, a significant role is played by wind shear—the change in wind direction with height. This process creates the rotational moment that contributes to the formation of a vortex.

      At the same time, it is practically impossible to predict the strength of a future tornado in advance. According to the specialist, the likelihood of a more powerful vortex increases with extremely high levels of atmospheric instability. Tornadoes are not a typical phenomenon for the Ural region; however, they are recorded in the area almost every year.

      Sixteen people sought medical assistance after the tornado in the Sverdlovsk region, with the city of Kushva being the hardest hit. As a result of the bad weather, 99 private residential houses, 25 vehicles, and 15 power lines were damaged, and 32 private residential houses were completely destroyed. As previously reported, a state of emergency was declared in Kushva after the hurricane.